£200bn, or 1 per cent of global GDP, must be spent every year to get carbon dioxide levels to "stabilise" at 550ppm. This figure will rise as world GDP increases, and could be three to four times as large by 2050 40 per cent of the world's species would face extinction if temperatures rose by 2C 200 million people are at risk of being driven from their homes by flood or drought by 2050 60 million more Africans could be exposed to malaria if world temperatures rise by 2C 35 per cent drop in crop yields across Africa and the Middle East is expected if temperatures rise by 3C 200 million more people could be exposed to hunger if world temperatures rise by 2C 550 million more people could be at risk of hunger if world temperatures rise by 3C 4 million square kilometres of land, home to one-twentieth of the world's population, is threatened by floods from melting glaciers 35,000 Europeans died in the 2003 heatwave, an event likely to become 'commonplace' 4 billion people could suffer from water shortage if temperatures rise by 2C Future generations may come to regard the apocalyptic report by Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist at the World Bank, as the turning point in combating global warming, or as the missed opportunity. As well as producing a catastrophic vision of hundreds of millions fleeing flooding and drought, Sir Nicholas suggests that the cost of inaction could be a permanent loss of 20 per cent of global output. That equates to a figure of £3.68 trillion - while to act quickly would cost the equivalent of £184bn annually, 1 per cent of world GDP. Across the world, environmental groups hailed the report as the beginning of a new era on climate change, but the White House maintained an ominous silence. However, the report laid down a challenge to the US, and other major emerging economies including China and India, that British ministers said cannot be ignored. Its recommendations are based on stabilising carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere at between 450 and 550 parts per million - which would still require a cut of at least 25 per cent in global emissions, rising to 60 per cent for the wealthy nations. It accepts that even with a very strong expansion of renewable energy sources, fossil fuels could still account for more than half of global energy supplies by 2050. Presenting the findings in London, Tony Blair said the 700-page document was the "most important report on the future" published by his Government. Green campaigners said that at last the world had woken up to the dangers they had been warning about for years. Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, and likely next Prime Minister, assumed the task of leading the world in persuading the sceptics in the US, China and India to accept the need for global co-operation to avert the threat of a global catastrophe. He has enlisted Al Gore, the former presidential candidate turned green evangelist, to sell the message in the United States, with Sir Nicholas. Sir Nicholas's report contained little that was scientifically new. But British ministers are hoping his hard-headed economic analysis will be enough to persuade the doubters in the White House to curb America's profligate use of carbon energy. In the Commons, Environment Secretary, David Miliband, confirmed that ministers were drawing up a Climate Change Bill, which would enshrine in law the Government's long-term target of reducing carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2050. But he declined to go into any detail. Mr Blair said the consequences for the planet of inaction were "literally disastrous". "This disaster is not set to happen in some science fiction future many years ahead, but in our lifetime," he said. "We can't wait the five years it took to negotiate Kyoto - we simply don't have the time. We accept we have to go further [than Kyoto]." Sir Nicholas told BBC radio: "Unless it's international, we will not make the reductions on the scale which will be required." Pia Hansen, of the European Commission, said the report "clearly makes a case for action". "Climate change is not a problem Europe can afford to put into the 'too difficult' pile," she said. "It is not an option to wait and see, and we must act now." Charlie Kronick, of Greenpeace, said the report was "the final piece in the jigsaw" in the case for action to reduce emissions. "There are no more excuses left, no more smokescreens to hide behind, now everybody has to back action to slash emissions, regardless of party or ideology," he said. The CBI director general Richard Lambert said a global system of emissions trading was now urgently needed as a "nucleus" for effective action. "Provided we act with sufficient speed, we will not have to make a choice between averting climate change and promoting growth and investment."
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
The whole world, except for the certain region extending from the Arabian Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean is busy with exploring and studying the landmark report published by Sir Nicholas Stern two days that predicts an apocalyptic future if current climate change policies, or lack of them continue unmodified.
Here are some statistics from the report:
The level in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, stood at 280 parts per million by volume (ppm) before the Industrial Revolution, in about 1780. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere today stands at 382ppm
6C is a "plausible" estimate of how much world temperatures could rise by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions are unchecked
The report and its reactios can be easily traced within the Internet. For a good and summarised account of the report here is what the Independent had to say this morning:
Climate change has been made the world's biggest priority, with the publication of a stark report showing that the planet faces catastrophe unless urgent measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
While the Bush administration refused to be drawn on the report, US environmental groups seized on it to demand a major change in policy. "The President needs to stop hiding behind his opposition to the Kyoto protocol and lay a new position on the table," said the National Environmental Trust, in Washington. The Washington Post said in an editorial that it was "hard to imagine" that the "intransigence" of the administration would long survive its tenure. "Will [Mr Bush] take a hand in developing America's response to this global problem," it asked, "Or will he go down as the President who fiddled while Greenland melted?"
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