Several investors, lured by the stability and safety of Jordan, seek approvals for mega real estate projects in forest areas of the country. By granting such approvals, the Kingdom could be sacrificing long-term benefits for short-term gains.

Investors should prove to Jordanians that the short-term benefits of the proposed ventures outweigh the long-term losses to the economy.

For starters, the government cannot and should not permit any project that is not concerned with biodiversity to gain an advantage over another that is. Otherwise, Jordan can be permitting a “race to the bottom”, which in turn may cause loss of natural capital, with consequent erosion, water purity problems, diseases, desertification and other outcomes which are not efficient in the long term from a purely economic perspective.

Any company that desires to conduct an operation that may result in eroding the environment, whether by cutting a tree or polluting the environment (water, air, noise, scenery) must conduct a risk assessment. This is the first step towards managing the risk of such an adverse outcome; it should be taken by measuring the magnitude of the potential loss and acknowledging the probability that the loss will occur.

But risk assessment, which is the most important step in the risk-management process, may also be the most difficult to perform, and susceptible to error. The uncertainty surrounding the measurement is usually large. Furthermore, it is difficult to present all quantities in one metric measure that embodies all required information. Once risks have been identified and assessed, however, the steps to properly deal with them are systematic.

In the case of Jordan, some large investment companies have managed to lobby for bypassing such environmental risk assessments, whether by hiring high-profile individuals to place undue pressure upon officials or by enlisting the support of the media to criticise anyone slowing the flow of investment.

Some have even asked the locals and their representatives, with the lure of jobs and higher property prices, to sanction and even speak on their behalf to the concerned parties. Lacking information and having the loose promises of a treasure trove at the end of the rainbow, locals have proved to be an efficient pressure group.

The onus is upon the government, however, to ensure that proper environmental risk assessments are conducted. The short-term gains in terms of greater economic activity should be weighed against the long-term cost to biodiversity in a transparent manner, coupled with public awareness campaigns that educate the public and bring it into the process.

Such companies would then find the transaction cost extremely high and quit the investment in favour of more environmentally friendly ventures, which do exist.

Unless Jordan acts in such a manner, the future generations will suffer because of the follies of the present and no development process, which is usually a long-term undertaking, can ever be called sustainable. It is like taxing the future to spend today, which would be myopic and wrong.

Questions and comments can be directed at: ymansur@enconsult.com