Analysis: Nuclear power may spread in Mideast

Source: Middle East Times

Derek Sands
United Press International
September 25, 2006

CAIRO -- At a time of slowing oil production in some Middle Eastern countries, and the growing influence of a nuclear Iran, those states may turn to nuclear power to supplement oil and gas supplies, while balancing Iran's power, analysts told United Press International.

Amid declining oil exports, Egypt and Yemen have both recently expressed interest in turning to nuclear power to supplement their own domestic supplies of oil and gas.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak September 21 told the final session of his National Democratic Party's annual congress that Egypt should look at the possibility of nuclear power. The statement came just two days after his son, Gamal Mubarak, a senior party official, addressed the conference and said that it was time for Egypt to pursue alternative energy, including nuclear power.

Although he denies presidential ambitions, Gamal Mubarak is widely considered to be a strong candidate for the presidency when his father's term ends in five years. Egypt could begin a nuclear program as early as seven or eight years, he said.

The announcement came while the United States and its European allies consider actions against Iran for its efforts to master the nuclear fuel cycle, a crucial step in building nuclear weapons, and necessary to achieving independent nuclear power.

Other countries in the region have also expressed interest in nuclear energy.

In June, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, facing a re-election campaign, suggested that nuclear energy was a potential option to solve the country's energy shortfalls. Oil revenues now make up between 65 and 70 percent of the government's income, but oil production is falling, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Department of Energy's data arm.

"In the cases of Yemen and Egypt, their energy resources are limited and their domestic energy demand is outgrowing their domestic energy supply," said Khalid Al Rodhan, the author of many publications on security and energy in the Middle East, and a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "This is even more problematic, given the current environment of high energy prices. It is unclear whether nuclear energy is the answer."

Although Egypt's natural gas production is increasing dramatically, and it has 3.7 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, its oil exports have declined over the past decade, according the EIA. The limits of these supplies may push Egypt, and some other countries, to shift their sources of domestic energy, Rodhan said.

"Given the tightness of the global oil and natural gas market, many energy producing nations may opt to use oil and gas as 'strategic' exports and use other forms of energy to satisfy domestic needs," Rodhan said.

Although it is still unclear what kind of reception the broad adoption of nuclear energy in the Middle East would get from the international community, the United States has already said that it would assist Egypt.

Soon after Gamal Mubarak's call for Egypt to pursue nuclear power, US Ambassador Francis Ricciardone September 20 said on Egyptian television that the United States would support Egypt in its efforts, providing the country with technical assistance.

Egypt began efforts at nuclear power as early as the 1950s, first with help from the United States, then from the Soviet Union, and has continued its research, though never building anything more than research facilities. Egypt is a signatory to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT), which allows the country to develop peaceful nuclear power, but limits its building of nuclear weapons.

"While the NPT does grant [Egypt and Yemen] the right to acquire full civilian nuclear cycle, it remains unclear whether each country wants to face the international scrutiny - specially given what Iran has been going through," Rodhan said.

But Egypt's and Yemen's apparent desire to pursue nuclear power may also reflect the changing regional politics, as Iran moves closer to nuclear independence, according to Mitchell Reiss, the vice provost for international affairs at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, VA, USA.

"These countries are responding to the rise of Iran, not just because of its nuclear weapons program, but also because of high oil prices, and a general sense of growing confidence and assertiveness on the part of the Iranian leadership," he said. "They may see a domestic nuclear power program as a hedge against the rise of Iranian power, although the development of a purely civilian power program is not a rational response if they want to counter Tehran."

Whether or not other Middle Eastern countries develop nuclear power, the problems faced by the United States and Europe in dealing with Iran's nuclear program demonstrate that efforts to stop determined countries from pursuing nuclear energy will meet very limited success, Rodhan said.

"The proliferation of nuclear energy/weapons is inevitable," Rodhan said.