Climate Change to cause wars in North Africa

As if the Arab World does not have more than its fair share of catastrophies in the form of occupation, drought, civil wars, terrorism and oppression it is expected that Climate Change will add more mayhem, especially in North Africa.

According to a new report published by UNEP, Climate change is likely to aggravate old conflicts and could even turn into wars or violence in many parts of the world.

Happy faces with a grim report

Areas at risk of greater insecurity include northern and southern Africa, central Asia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, China, parts of the Caribbean and Andean and Amazonian regions of Latin America.

The report, by German and Swiss academics, says that the population of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean is estimated to grow by 40 per cent by 2025 at the same time as rainfall and agricultural production will be in decline.

Entitled Climate Change as a Security Risk, the report suggests that the climate change-induced causes of conflict are likely to be: degradation of freshwaters; decline in food production; increase in storm and flood disasters and environmentally-induced migration.

It identifies vulnerable states and societies as those that are in political transition and have a low level of economic activity with often large population or high population densities.

It says North Africa could be at particular risk of rising interstate conflicts including ones that might affect the region and beyond. Some countries in North Africa have recently suffered internal unrest and tensions including Algeria and Morocco.

In addition, many countries here are "characterised by poverty, high youth unemployment, wide social discrepancies and scanty state social security networks".

Aggravating pressures will be the likelihood of increased migration to the north by people living in the Sahel region and increased rural to city migration.

"As usable land and water resources become increasingly scarce, and use of non-sustainable methods of agriculture continues, desertification will cause further impoverishment and the risk of water and land-related conflicts at regional and local level will increase throughout North Africa," says the report.

After 2025-2030, water conflicts between Egypt and other countries cannot be excluded and could trigger insecurity that is 'felt far beyond the region".

The experts believe that the political and institutional structures of southern Europe will be able to cope with environmental changes such as drought and heat waves. But it notes that migration from countries of North Africa to EU countries could have violent consequences.

The report highlightes other regions where potential impacts are expected to hit, and they are

Central Asia. Above-average warming and glacial retreat will exacerbate water and agricultural problems in a region already characterised by political and social tensions and civil war, (Tajikistan).

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh. The retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas will jeopardise the water supply for millions. Changes in the monsoon will affect agriculture.

China. Climate change will intensify existing environmental stresses from air and soil degradation. Cyclones and sea level rise will affect the populous south coast. The report says that the government's capacity to cope could be overwhelmed by the rapid pace of modernisation, social and environmental crises and climate change.

The very large report (19 MB) can be (hopefully) downloaded from here