A recent report by Friends of the Earth Middle East (a regional environmental watchdog composed of Jordanian, Palestinian and Israeli researchers) has warned that climate change is proving to be a new security threat facing the Middle East. The report states that extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, and less precipitation caused by climate change will contribute to even greater water stress in the region. It further claims that for a region that already possesses some of the greatest political tensions in the world, the climate crisis and its potential physical and socioeconomic impacts are likely to exacerbate this cross-border political instability.

According to the report, Climate change is likely to act as a “threat multiplier” – exacerbating water scarcity and tensions over water within and between nations linked by hydrological resources, geography, and shared political boundaries. Poor and vulnerable populations, which exist in significant numbers throughout the region, will likely face the greatest risk. Water shortages and rising sea levels could lead to mass migration in the Region.

Scenarios indicate that a 0.5 meter (approximately 19 inches) rise in sea level, for example, could displace nearly 2-4 million Egyptians by 2050. The drinking water of 1.5 million Palestinians in Gaza would be further contaminated by rising sea levels leading to sea water intrusion of their only water source, the Coastal Aquifer. Economic unrest across the region, due to a decline in agricultural production from climate impacts on water resources, also could lead to greater political unrest.