For the first time in its long history of debates in the cold mountains of Davos and the scorching heat of the Middle East, the World Economic Forum will finally tackle the issue of sustainability and environmental challenges at length in its forthcoming meeting in Sharm El Sheik from 18-20 May.

The forum will be held under the theme "Learning from the Future" where participants from business, government, media and civil society will use scenarios to shape discussions on issues including the economy, society and geopolitics. The three scenarios will be "A Hyperlinked World, a Sustainable world and a multipolar world".

According to the open paper published on WEF's website the three scenarios have been drafted for discussion as follows:

1-     The Hyperlinked World:

Today is 18 May 2025. You are reading this document on your "Hyperlink Device", a portable document reader that is also your mobile videophone, camera, music player, organizer and Internet browser. It fits nicely in what used to be your business card wallet but, in fact, it is almost always in your hand. You pay about 50 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) dirhams a month (approximately US$ 10 in 2010) for the necessary subscriptions. Everything else is free.

Devices such as these have opened up new worlds of entrepreneurial and social possibilities since they were introduced in 2015. Like billions of others around the world, you make on average more than 200 interactions a day with friends and colleagues without lifting a finger. You have no office, and neither do any of your company's 50 employees, who travel the world and rarely meet face to face. These colleagues are the core of the company's workforce of around 1,000 temporary staff who "plug-in" to the company when they have something to contribute. Competition for talent is huge. You and your competitors have been forced to be extremely efficient, specialized and highly collaborative in order to survive. Yours is a new breed of Decentralized Micro Companies (DMCs). While large companies have found it increasingly difficult to make and sustain profits, DMCs take advantage of the fast-moving nature of global business to jump on new ideas, make temporary returns while they can, and quickly move on

Technological advances, deregulation and massive investment in transport infrastructure were the driving forces that revolutionized global business and society between 2008 and 2025. Technology did not only boost the information and communications sectors, but also made transport cheaper, faster and cleaner. Deregulation got off to a bad start with the abandoning of the Doha Round in 2009. Since then regional trade barriers came down, as countries grouped into powerful trade blocs by 2015. Between 2015 and 2025 the barriers to trade in goods and services between these blocs were virtually eliminated in a successful trade round pushed through by an alliance of southern and Asian countries.

Infrastructural investment also played a key role in enabling the Hyperlinked World. The proceeds of strong economic growth between 2000 and 2010 were ploughed into airports, ports, railways and road networks. This generated much greater freedom of movement of goods and people across borders, eliminating bottlenecks and streamlining supply chains. You recently sent a full refrigerator of products from Delhi to Delaware, and it arrived in less than 48 hours for the price of a falafel sandwich. Should you have wanted to follow its path around the world, jumping from country to country, you would have needed neither a physical passport nor a visa.

During your travels around the world, nobody asks where you are from, and hardly anyone cares. You are a global citizen, distinguished from others by your chosen personal beliefs, lifestyle and interests, and the networks, communities and interest groups to which you subscribe. Your political party membership is global, likewise your company's lobby group, and even your gym membership, is valid in 100 countries. The Hyperlinked World is a world fraught with the dangers of extremism, uncertainty and instability. But from where you are standing, you also see enormous opportunities.

2-      The Sustainable World:

Today is 18 May 2025. In the news, the results of the latest scientific study on the impact of climate change claim the headlines once again. The results worry you, but you are reassured that during the past 15 years the world seems to have responded strongly to the threats of environmental degradation, pollution and climate change. Now the planet's 10.5 billion people can only pray that the news gets better.

The environmental emergency really began to be addressed in earnest in 2013, when the new US president campaigned, and won, on the basis of his climate change policy. A powerful alliance of concerned academics, citizens and organizations from around the world, known as the Planetary Sustainability Movement, backed by a sympathetic media, is now credited by historians as the main force of change at this time. The US president pushed for the adoption of a new international framework of tough environmental regulations and taxation which were adopted in 2018, forcing businesses to take on truly sustainable business models, putting environmental responsibility at the heart of corporate strategy.

Meanwhile, geopolitics is all about energy. The unprecedented demand for energy in the 2008-2015 period led to the so-called "energy crunch". Billions of dollars were put into alternative energy technology, but the gap between supply and demand was in fact filled by new supplies of oil and gas made possible by enhanced recovery technology and access to Arctic oilfields and Canadian oil sands. By 2025, the Middle East is no longer the world's primary energy-producing region.

The combination of punitive regulations and continuing dependence on fossil fuels slows global growth, which settles at around 1.5% in the 2015-2025 period. The economic picture is not all bad, however, with many businesses taking advantage of the new possibilities in renewable energy, green technology and waste management. Travel and tourism, long the target of environmental campaigners, is regarded more favourably as an industry compared to 20 years earlier. It continues to grow and thrive on new foundations of sustainability.

Cities become the predominant focus of global economic activity, with 60% of the world's population living in urban areas by 2020. The challenges of urbanization become a top priority for governments. It becomes standard practice to appoint ministers of urbanization in the governments of advanced economies. These ministers tackle water shortages, high food and fuel prices, and adherence to emissions regulations, as well as growing urban poverty.

Despite the challenges, by 2025, the general mood of pessimism about the future of the planet starts to soften into an appreciation of the huge achievements of global leaders in responding, some would say too late, to the climate emergency.

3-      The Multipolar World:

Today is 18 May 2025, in a world whose centre of gravity has shifted dramatically towards the East. At the airport where you have just arrived for the World Economic Forum on the Middle East, there are as many flights leaving for India, China, Russia and Japan as there are for Europe and the United States. The Middle East, which has long been at the geographic centre of world maps, is now also at its economic and political centre, surrounded by the powerhouses of Europe, Central and South Asia and further afield China, Russia and the Americas.

You have just left your son and daughter at their summer school in China, where they will learn the Chinese language and culture. This is now a prerequisite for a successful career in a world in which China is about to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy – about a decade earlier than most predicted in the early part of the century. From 2008 to 2015, China successfully navigated a turbulent time for the global economy and maintained internal stability by striking a delicate balance between growth and income distribution. As the Asian economies pulled people out of poverty at home, they also sucked resources from the rest of the world, keeping oil prices above US$ 150 and generating enormous incomes for the oil producers in the Middle East and Russia in particular.

During the decade 2015-2025, the Asian model of “authoritarian capitalism” began to seriously challenge the free market paradigm of the West as a policy framework for countries floundering between East and West. You remember clearly being present at the speech given by the Chinese premier in 2017 during one of his increasingly frequent tours of the Middle East, essentially calling for Arab nations to join in the Asian economic “miracle”. It began a process of self-reflection by Middle Eastern leaders regarding the region’s positioning and ideology in the world, and a reassessment of its geopolitical alliances.

Your biggest long-term headache is how to turn a higher profit from your trading businesses. Although you do a great deal of business with Asia, global growth has been sluggish in the 2020-2025 period as a new era of protectionism began in response to the startling rise of China. Your economist friends are sceptical that Chinese growth rates can be maintained faced with an ageing population and rising wages in a tight labour market. This reassures your colleagues in the United States which has coexisted in a wary peace with China despite a particularly nasty war of words in 2021 over Taiwan that almost turned into the first world war of the 21st century.

One of your advantages in this new world is that your company’s headquarters in the Gulf now shares a building with many of the world’s biggest multinationals who have chosen to locate themselves at the natural hub of Europe, Asia and Africa. You look forward to next week’s scheduled game of golf with the CEO of the world’s no.1 retail company. Naturally, she’s Chinese.