Tamimi: There are two clear indicators of climate change in this region. The first is a shift of the rainy season from September-October to November. The second is that we've seen a drop in average precipitation by about ten percent over the past 20 years.
BI: So essentially the biggest issue is water scarcity?
Tamimi: Yes, and this also affects human security and can lead to an increase in conflicts among the different parts of the Mediterranean where overall the capacity to manage water scarcity is becoming less.
The danger arises from several factors. First, there is less accessible water available to all the peoples of the region. Secondly, with population growth there is increased demand for this water. This, combined with changes in standards of living and an increase in tourism to the area, has rapidly increased demand for water to such an extent that the area cannot provide enough to meet these demands.
BI: So there is less water and more people. Are the states of the region aware of these problems and what are they doing to address them?
Tamimi: There are steps taken by individual countries, but there is no collective effort to address climate change or water security. Individual states are taking three steps. First, they are trying to come up with a coping strategy to minimize the damage of climate change. Second, some of the states of the region are effecting a more efficient water management strategy. Finally, there is a shift in reallocation policy, from water being allocated to agriculture to water allocated for human purposes. But all these steps will not make a difference if each country is acting to take the largest slice of the cake.
BI: So it has to be a regional effort?
Tamimi: Yes, but regional efforts on an equal footing, not between rich and powerful countries versus weak countries. I think some countries, like Israel and Turkey, are using the water card to pressure other countries.
BI: So water is being used as a weapon?
Tamimi: Yes, sometimes water scarcity is used to achieve non-water goals or interests.
BI: You mentioned that water was being allocated away from agriculture. But some of the countries of the region are largely agricultural. This must pose a big problem to them?
Tamimi: Yes it does, because reallocating water away from agriculture may endanger food security in some of these states. This will increase conflicts and instability in those countries.
BI: So, in order to really address this, states need a comprehensive socio-economic strategy?
Tamimi: Actually, that is the issue. Water is the entry point for socio-economic development for many countries of the region, especially those, like Palestine, that have a single working sector. In Palestine, agriculture is the single largest working sector, and when you allocate water away from agriculture you threaten the stability of the whole nation.
BI: And this will lead to rising levels of unemployment and poverty?
Tamimi: Yes, which will lead to violence.
BI: Do you also see dangers of large-scale migration?
Tamimi: It's difficult to say, but it's likely. Look at what is happening in Tulkarm and Qalqiliya. Because of the lack of water and the area's reliance on agriculture, there is a scarcity of jobs. Hence, there is migration from these places to Ramallah.
BI: In the Palestine/Israel context, the issue of water is not just about scarcity or management, it's also political.
Tamimi: Of course. Water in the entire Middle East is about politics with a capital P. First it is used as a means to pressure some countries. Second, in the case of Palestine, should it suddenly become rich in water, its economy would no longer be dependent on Israel's. Israel has long pursued a strategy of controlling Palestinian water, that way ensuring a market for its own agricultural products.
BI: So, water is an economic weapon as well?
Tamimi: Yes it is. And if you take projects like the Red-Dead Canal, the intention behind this is to integrate the Israeli economy into the regional economy.
BI: But isn't that necessary in order to reach an integrated regional approach to managing water scarcity?
Tamimi: There is a need for an integrated approach, but what we are witnessing is not such an approach, but simply an acknowledgment that Israel will be a water superpower.
BI: Do you think political conflicts in the region can be solved without reference to water?
Tamimi: No. The water issue is completely political. Take the Jordan River. The Jordan River should be a future political border for the Palestinian state. But it's a water resource, and if there is no solution to the political border issue then there is no formal solution to the issue of access to the water of the Jordan.
Take Jerusalem. Until the legal status of Jerusalem is solved, there is no way for the Palestinian side to provide water for Palestinians in Jerusalem. The return of refugees will cause further water shortage. These are all political issues that, lacking resolution, will hamper efforts to manage water. The issue of water is inextricably interconnected with every single final status issue.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Under the theme 'strategic implications of climate change" the Biterlemons has published a package of articles and interviews reflecting the potential and current impacts of climate change on the region from a strategic perspectives. The articles can be accessed here
This is the full text of an interesting interview with Abdel Rahman Al Tamimi the director of the Palestinian Hydrology Group for Water and Environment Resources Development
BI: How serious a threat is climate change to this region?
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from Oman
Excellent Post. I think this interview summarizes the social, economic, and therefore political reasons why the entire region must coordinate responses to climate change and imminent water scarcity.
As I have been studying the water sector dynamics in Oman, I have noticed that although buzz words such as "Integrated Water Resource Management," "sustainable development" and the like have prompted conferences and seminars, water concerns are still viewed as long-term issues. Indeed, there is no apparent bench-marking even for enacting water sector re-allocations (from agriculture), measures to decrease water demand, etc.
I am trying to investigate the "why" behind a lack of political will to implement ideas that exist in law but are not pursued further by ministry level officials. So at the basic national level, yet also at the regional level, change and coordination must occur.