The 2008-2022 national water strategy has been officially endorsed. This document will set the planning platform for the most crucial development sector in the country for the next 14 years. In a country where values like good governance, accountability, transparency, public participation and decentralisation have been extensively used in development rhetoric; one would expect the water strategy to engage stakeholders, experts, practitioners and common people in a national wide consultation campaign. This has not been evident during the process of preparations but hopes remain high that the phase of developing implementation tools and programmes will be more participatory.

The document was the result of the combined knowledge and experiences of the members of the Royal Committee mandated for developing the strategy. However, the document could have really benefited from the knowledge of thousands of water professionals in the country and could have been much more inclusive to guarantee a better national ownership for the outcome.

Commenting on the detailed approach and content of the strategy could be the subject of another article, but in this particular one I want to focus on the extraordinary fact that the strategy has somehow managed to miss one of the most pressing challenges facing the future of water resources in Jordan, and that is climate change.

The United Nations describes climate change as the “defining development challenge of the 21st century” (UNDP Human Development Report 2007).

The preliminary impacts of climate change have already been documented in many parts of the world and the remaining, most threatening, impacts are starting to hit hard on the fragile economies and ecosystems of developing countries, including Jordan.

The reality check of the expected water situation in the Kingdom is alarming. This is common knowledge, even to schoolchildren in the country, but the exact nature of the combined impact of climate change on the already exhausted water supply has barely been studied. The first steps were conducted through the “Second National Communication to Climate Change Convention”, which was prepared by the Ministry of Environment relying on the accumulated knowledge of about 40 Jordanian experts. Although the document has not been officially endorsed yet, the main findings about the water sector’s vulnerability to climate change provide a worrisome perspective.

Climate change trends in Jordan show an expected increase in temperature, but not more than two degrees in the coming 40 years. In addition, a decline in rainfall in Jordan has been projected by a modelling analysis produced at the global level by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Jordanian study selected the Yarmouk and Zarqa basins as models for trend analysis on the impact of climate change on water resources. The results indicate a significant change in spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation by about 20 per cent. However, the authors of the study have indicated that the inconsistency of historical data has not allowed them to develop a comprehensive future scenario.

The way in which Jordan responds to the challenges of climate change in the water sector is crucial. Adaptation has been defined by the IPCC as “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits opportunities”. In practical terms, this means countries that are expected to suffer the impacts of climate change should be able to develop policies, programmes, projects, modifications in infrastructures and production-consumption patterns, community mobilisation and integrated natural resource management options to adapt to climate change impacts and reduce potential harm.

To do so, Jordan must first identify all potential impacts on the water sector and then design adaptation measures that respond to the real, scientifically-based challenges. The assessment study by the Ministry of Environment identified a few adaptation measures: reduction of water loss in distribution pipes; introduction of water saving technologies, including in irrigation; collection of rainwater; and the shift to treated wastewater as a resource for irrigation.

Jordan is taking its first steps in adaptation measures with a new programme funded by the Spanish government that links together five ministries and four UN agencies jointly implementing a $4 million programme titled: “Adaptation to Climate Change to Sustain Jordan’s Millennium Development Goal Achievements”. The programme will focus on the water sector aiming to sustain access to improved supply sources despite increased water scarcity induced by climate change and enhancing adaptive capacity for health protection and food security to climate change under water scarcity conditions. This programme will be the first integrated effort in the Kingdom to incorporate climate change adaptation in natural resource management and is expected to set the standards and norms for future action.

The increased global attention to climate change has prompted several national organisations in the public, civil and private sectors to look more carefully at its impacts as science and evidence provide more genuine data for decision makers. It is hoped that water planners in the country will put climate change on the planning table to design timely and responsive measures that take into consideration one of the major emerging threats to our dwindling water resources!

The writer, an environmental researcher and communicator, can be reached for comments at batir@nets.jo. He contributed this article to The Jordan Times.